PROJECT SYNTHESIS
1. INTRODUCTION
Road safety evaluations on
two-lane rural roads with low/medium traffic flows can raise concerns
both due to the general deficiency of reliable data on road accidents
and to the circumstance that few crash data due to low traffic,
not always can give enough information on accidents distribution
and causes.
Based on these considerations, the project "Identification
of Hazard Locations and Ranking of Measures to Improve Safety
on Local Rural Roads" (Italian acronym IASP), funded by the
European Commission (DG TREN) and the Province of Catania (Italy),
aims to define a methodological approach purposely designed for
the safety evaluation of two-lane local rural highways. The proposed
model uses both procedures referring to the geometric design consistency
of road alignment and to the Safety Inspection process of road
features.
The IASP methodology integrates the results of design consistency
models with those deriving from the safety issues evaluation made
during Safety Inspection processes.
A Safety Index (SI) is formulated by combining three components
of risk: the exposure of road users to road hazards, the probability
of becoming involved in a accident and the resulting consequences
should an accident occur.
The SI model was verified comparing the ranking of risk carried
out by the model with the actual number of accident on the same
road sections.
The research activity was concluded monitoring of the safety benefits
of road interventions. In particular, the following monitoring
methodologies were applied:
1. Before-After Accident Analyses.
2. Monitoring of vehicle spot speed.
3. Monitoring of vehicle trajectory and speed profile.
In Figure 1 it is shown the Flow-chart of the methodological approach
of IASP project.
Figure 1 - Flow-chart of the methodological approach proposed in the IASP project.
2. SAFETY INDEX
The proposed approach makes
use of theoretical-experimental models for the evaluation of design
consistency which has been demonstrated effective in identifying
hazardous road locations due to geometric road alignment. However,
the resulting analyses, although effective in addressing alignment
inconsistencies, do not highlight all the potential accident contributory
factors.
Therefore, Road Safety Inspections (RSI) are aimed at identifying
potential hazards, which are assessed by measuring risk in relation
to those road features that may lead to future accidents, so that
remedial treatments may be implemented before accidents happen.
In order to use safety inspections as part of a quantitative safety
evaluation process, the IASP project defines new procedures and
criteria for identifying and ranking safety issues. The ranking
criteria take into account the road safety effects of the identified
issues.
Using the collected information, based on the data obtained from
the RSI combined with information from theoretical-experimental
models of design consistency, it was possible to define a Safety
Index value (SI) able to measure the level of risk in different
homogenous stretches of road, according to the model:
S.I. = Vulnerability x Exposure x Magnitude
Where:
Vulnerability = probability of accident defined basing on the
integrated system of Safety Inspection + design consistency models;
Exposure = million vehicles per kilometer;
Magnitude = possible consequences of the accident referring to
speeds and roadside hazard.
The SI has two main applications. High-risk segments, where safety measures that can reduce accident frequency and/or severity already exist, can be identified and ranked. Specific safety issues, that give more contribution to unsafety, are pointed out in order to give indications regarding more appropriate mass-action programs.
2.1. Case Study
The proposed methodology
was tested on about 100 km of provincial roads in order to propose
a suitable model for the safety evaluation of local two lane rural
roads.
On this sample, a mobile laboratory has been used to collect useful
data for the horizontal and vertical road alignment reconstruction,
as well as other fundamental information as section width, road
markings, pavement conditions and accident data were collected
directly from Traffic Police and Carabinieri reports.
Safety Inspections were carried out by a team of ispectors trained
in the use of the IASP procedure.
The same sample of two lane local rural roads was used in order
to perform both the IASP Accident Prediction Model and The IASP
Geographic Information System.
2.2. Validation
Validation of the procedure
was carried out by a comparison of the risk rank obtained using
the SI and accident history. The SI was assessed in 30 segments
chosen from the sample of two-lane rural highways in Italy and
the actual accident situation was obtained with the EB procedure.
Spearman's rank-correlation was used to determine the level of
agreement between the rankings obtained using the two techniques.
The results from the Spearman's rank-correlation analysis validate
the SI, indicating that the ranking from the SI scores and the
EB estimates agree at the 99.9% level of significance with a correlation
coefficient equal to 0.8.
Moreover, in order to test the reliability of the Safety Inspection
methodology, the agreement of the results of the general safety
issues ranks produced by different groups of inspectors has been
addressed. Specifically, with the aim of checking the consistency
of the risk assignment between different inspectors, the statistic
kappa has been used. On the whole, the reliability of the procedure
is satisfactory, especially if it is considered that the identification
of the safety issues is a very complex task based on human evaluations
and expertise not supported by instrumental measures.
3. INTERVENTION AND MONITORING
Monitoring of the safety
benefits of road interventions was carried out. In particular,
the following analyses were performed:
1. Improvement interventions on a road stretch. Monitoring by
means of Before-After Accident Analyses.
2. Enforcement interventions to reduce traffic speed. Monitoring
by means of Before-After Speed Analyses.
3. Improvement interventions on a curve. Monitoring by means of
Before-After Vehicle Trajectory and Speed Analyses.
Before-and-After studies were chosen in order to evaluate the
effectiveness of an intervention comparing the conditions observed
before and after the carrying out of the works.
In order to evaluate whether the differences between the evaluation
parameters (number of accidents that would have been expected,
mean speed values and trajectories) obtained from the before and
after surveys were significant, statistics tests were used.
REFERENCES
[1] S.
Cafiso, G. La Cava, A. Montella, M. Pernetti "A Methodological
Approach for the Safety Evaluation of Two-Lane Rural Roads with
Low-Medium Traffic Volume" 1st European Road Congress, 24-26
November, Lisbon, Portugal, 2004.
[2] S. Cafiso, G. La Cava, S.
Leonardi, G. Pappalardo, A. Montella "Operative Procedures
for Road Safety Inspections" 13th International Conference
Road Safety on Four Continents, 5-7 Ottobre 2005, Warsaw, Polland.
[3] Cafiso,
S., G. La Cava, A. Montella, and G. Pappalardo "A Procedure
to Improve Safety Inspections Effectiveness and Reliability on
Rural Two-Lane Highways." The Baltic Journal of Road and
Bridge Engineering, Volume 1, No.3, 2006, pp. 143-150, ISSN 1822-427X.
[4] S. Cafiso, G. La Cava,
A. Montella "Safety Index for Evaluation of Two-Lane Rural
Highways". Transportation Research Record n. 2019, Washington,
D.C., 2007.
[5] Cafiso, G. La Cava,
A. Montella "Safety Evaluation Process For Two-Lane Rural
Highways" 4th International SIIV Congress, 12-14 September
2007, Palermo Italy.
[6] Cafiso, G. La Cava, A.
Montella "Safety Assessment For Two Lane Rural Local Roads
- EU-IASP Project" 23rd PIARC World Road Congress, Paris
France 2007
[7] S. Cafiso, G.
La Cava, A. Montella, Final Research Report "Identification
of Hazard Location and Ranking of Measures to Improve Safety on
Local Rural Roads: I.A.S.P.)" in
http://ec.europa.eu/transport/roadsafety/publications/projectfiles/iasp_en.htm
[8] Cafiso, G. La Cava, A. Montella, G. Pappalardo "Manuale per le ispezioni
di sicurezza extraurbane secondarie e locali" (ITA) - "Operative
procedures for safety inspections of two-lane rural roads (EN)". ARACNE editore. (Esempio
di analisi di sicurezza, ITA)